Impact projection
What the program could mean for independent merchants
A projection from stated assumptions, not a measurement: how much employees might spend at independent businesses, and how many visits that is, if Local Goods grows as each scenario assumes. Real results will be measured in a pilot.
Projection, not results
Choose a scenario and case
Golden Triangle only: The pilot district alone. The base case uses the base value of every assumption below.
In year 4
- Spent at independent merchants
- $612k
- in the year
- Visits to local businesses
- 43,714
- one per purchase
- Participating employees
- 1,200
- at 20 employers in 1 BID
- Average per merchant
- $15k
- across 40 participating merchants
Spent at independent merchants, by year
Golden Triangle only, base case. The table below has every number.
| Year | BIDs | Employers | Participating employees | Merchants | Spent at independent merchants | Visits | Average per merchant |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 1 | 10 | 600 | 40 | $166k | 11,839 | $8k |
| Year 2 | 1 | 20 | 1,200 | 40 | $472k | 33,696 | $12k |
| Year 3 | 1 | 20 | 1,200 | 40 | $612k | 43,714 | $15k |
| Year 4 | 1 | 20 | 1,200 | 40 | $612k | 43,714 | $15k |
Counts are at the end of each year; dollars and visits are the year's total. A visit is one purchase. The average per merchant is the year's spending divided by the average number of participating merchants that year.
How much of this spending might stay local
Estimate from an outside study, not measured by Local Goods
Money spent at independent local businesses tends to recirculate roughly 3x more in the local economy than money spent at chains, an effect often called the local multiplier.
In the study, independent retailers and restaurants recirculated 52.3% of their revenue locally, against 15.8% for chains: about 3.3 times as much. Local Goods has not measured this in the Golden Triangle. Real results will be measured in a pilot.
Source: Civic Economics, “Indie Impact Study Series: National Summary Report” (with the American Booksellers Association), data from 2011–2012, 134 businesses in 10 U.S. communities, none in DC. Read the Publishers Weekly report on the study.
If the national study's rates held here, about $320k of year 4's projected $612k would recirculate locally, against about $97k if the same money were spent at chains. Both are estimates on top of a projection; the real share here could be higher or lower.
Assumptions
The drivers behind these numbers. Where there is no public source, the value is labelled “Assumption: to validate in customer discovery”: Local Goods hasn't run a pilot yet, so these are what a pilot has to check.
| Assumption | Low | Base | High | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employers per BID, once enrolled employers | 10 | 20 | 30 | Assumption: to validate in customer discovery The reference model assumed 20 to 30 employers per BID. Enrolled in a straight line from the BID's launch. Checked 2026-10-28 |
| Months to enroll those employers months | 24 | 24 | 24 | Assumption: to validate in customer discovery From the month the BID launches. Checked 2026-10-28 |
| Participating employees per employer people | 30 | 60 | 120 | Assumption: to validate in customer discovery Employees who receive credits each month. The demo employer has 40 enrolled out of 120 staff; major employers in the district are larger. Checked 2026-10-28 |
| Monthly credit per employee dollars | $25 | $50 | $100 | Assumption: to validate in customer discovery Set by each employer. The landing page's worked example uses $50. Checked 2026-10-28 |
| Share of credits spent share | 70% | 85% | 95% | Assumption: to validate in customer discovery The rest stays the employer's money and is returned or rolled over. It is never Local Goods revenue. Checked 2026-10-28 |
| Average purchase dollars | $10 | $14 | $18 | Assumption: to validate in customer discovery A lunch, a coffee or a small retail purchase. Sets the number of visits and AI checks. Checked 2026-10-28 |
| Participating merchants per BID merchants | 20 | 40 | 60 | Golden Triangle BID: 44 blocks, nearly 6,000 businesses, around 200 restaurants How many of those sign up is an assumption: 40 is about a fifth of the restaurants alone. Checked 2026-10-28 |
| Months to sign up those merchants months | 12 | 12 | 12 | Assumption: to validate in customer discovery From the month the BID launches. Checked 2026-10-28 |
| Scenario | End of year 1 | End of year 2 | End of year 3 | End of year 4 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Triangle only | 1 BID | 1 BID | 1 BID | 1 BID | Assumption: to validate in customer discovery The pilot district alone. |
| DC-wide | 2 BIDs | 6 BIDs | 10 BIDs | 12 BIDs | DC Department of Small and Local Business Development, Business Improvement Districts Every DC BID by the end of year 4. DSLBD says "There are currently 12 BIDs in the District of Columbia" but its own list names 13; we use 12. |
| National rollout | 4 BIDs | 24 BIDs | 60 BIDs | 100 BIDs | Business improvement districts in the United States (2010 census figure) The same shape as the 2013 reference model (4, 24, 60, 100 districts). 100 is about a tenth of the roughly 1,000 U.S. BIDs counted in a 2010 census funded by the International Downtown Association (dated). |
How it is worked out: each BID launches in a month set by its scenario, then enrolls its employers and merchants in a straight line. Spending is participating employees × monthly credit × the share of credits spent; visits are spending ÷ the average purchase. Credits employees don't spend stay their employer's money. The full method is in the model's documentation.